Facts vs Political Fiction in the Oil Patch
Yesterday, Diamondback Energy (FANG), a $40 Billion exploration and production company in Texas, and a darling of Wall Street analysts wrote an extraordinary letter to shareholders. The CEO Travis Stice wrote the following:
“The shale revolution has evolved from proof of concept (outspend cash flow to prove up basins) to manufacturing mode (significant growth) and is now in a more mature stage of development (free cash flow generation and return of capital). Today, geologic headwinds outweigh the tailwinds provided by improvements in technology and operational efficiency.”
“We also expect the U.S. oil directed rig count to be down almost 10% by the end of the second quarter and decline further in the third quarter. As a result of these activity cuts, it is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter.”
This commentary directly contradicts claims from the Trump administration that US oil production can and will continue to grow. In March, the Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the FT that the US oil patch could “absolutely” deliver both lower prices and higher production. The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went even further, claiming that the US could drive oil production higher by 3 million barrels a day amid lower prices. Both comments were patently absurd to the point of mendacious.
While lower oil prices are a gift to the US economy and interest rates, the reason for the weakness in oil is cause for concern. Our view is that oil prices below $60 reflect demand weakness and are a sign that we are on the cusp of a global recession caused by a sudden and shocking end to the free trade that has allowed the US and the rest of the world to grow rapidly without stoking inflation.
Tim Pierotti is WealthVest’s Chief Investment Officer.
Tim has over 25 years of experience in various aspects of the equities business. Prior to joining WealthVest, Mr. Pierotti spent seven years in Equity Research management roles at Deutsche Bank and most recently at BMO where he was a Managing Director and Head of US Product Management. Tim has 11 years of investment experience most notably as Head of Consumer Research and Portfolio Manager at The Galleon Group, a former NY based $8Bln Long/Short hedge fund. Tim is a graduate of Boston College and lives in Summit NJ.
WealthVest makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made in this material, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of Tim as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of WealthVest and are subject to change at any time without notice. WealthVest does not have any responsibility to update this material to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this material will continue.
Statements made in this material are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed in this material, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. WealthVest does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This material does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by WealthVest.
Certain statements made in this material may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.
The S&P 500® is a trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, LLC and its affiliates and for certain fixed index annuity contracts is licensed for use by the insurance company producer, and the related products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC or their affiliates, none of which make any representation regarding the advisability of purchasing such a product. WealthVest is not affiliated with, nor does it have a direct business relationship with Standard & Poors Financial Services, LLC.
