“We see stocks rising 10% in 2026 to our new target of 7600 for the S&P (some will go to 8000 for the headline attention). We see earnings growing by 10-12% and we assume the earnings multiple to remain constant. We see the economy growing by 2-3% and for the US consumer to remain resilient. We do expect some volatility in markets, but we would be buyers on weakness. We expect the economic and inflationary impact of tariffs to fade next year and fiscal support from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” to support business investment. We believe that as inflation settles down, the Fed will cut two to three times. Our favorite sector remains mega-cap tech driven by the transformative and productivity-generating power of AI”  

There is an old saying that I remember from my early days on Wall Street that “Only Fed Chairs who defeat inflation go to Heaven”. Given Chair Powell has allowed inflation to run above the 2% target for over four years, I’m not confident about his future ethereal direction of travel. In my experience over the years, at almost every FOMC press conference, Powell has sounded more dovish than I thought he would and has proven time and again to mistakenly underestimate the persistence of inflationary pressures. 

Over the weekend, Renaissance Macro’s outstanding market economist Neil Dutta made a compelling argument that there is mounting evidence that a potential inflection in unemployment may be upon us.

“Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes” Chico Marx

Financial conditions are about as easy as they can be. The Fed is cutting rates and more cuts are expected. Some members of the Fed and the Treasury Secretary have successfully jawboned down the long-end of the Treasury market (and thereby mortgage rates) with talk of a “third mandate”.

Bulls make money. Pigs get slaughtered.

This morning the Atlanta Fed published their “Nowcast” for US economic growth in the third quarter.  Historically, it has made sense to take these nowcasts with a grain of salt early in the quarter but later in the quarter, as we are now, these forecasts become more accurate. 

Labor Demand is Weak, but so is Labor Supply

Markets appear to be discounting an economy that is weak enough to allow the Fed to aggressively cut rates, but not so weak that a recession that would impact corporate earnings might be looming.

We find the commentary hard to square with the market expectation of a cut in September. They may well cut, but it doesn’t sound like they think it’s a great idea. 

Jackson Hole is next week and Jerome Powell is between a rock and a hard place

Tim Pierotti dives into the differences between today's IPO speculation and retail enthusiasm and the reminiscent trends of 1999. The question looms: Are we on the brink of another bubble?

Sometimes bad is good and good is bad when it comes to markets and the economy.

Two things can be true: This is a terrible job market for recent graduates and many other segments of the white-collar job market and yet nearly 40% of employers can’t fill open roles.

The neo-liberal consensus of free trade and integrated supply chains is under heavy strain due to growing populism in the developed world (which has seen stagnant wage growth) and in response to national security concerns. COVID-19 laid bare the glaring problems of not having domestic production in items such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have been focused on decoupling from China, albeit in very different ways. President Biden used the carrot in the form of industrial investment and corporate subsidies (i.e., the CHIPS and Science Act and provisions of Build Back Better). The Trump Administration has used the stick in the form of tariffs.

The housing market, in most of the country, is getting weaker. Activity remains slow, prices are negative across the Sunbelt, and inventory of both new and existing homes are moving to the highest levels since the GFC. Employment is getting weaker. Continuing unemployment claims are making new highs on a weekly basis and even initial jobless claims are finally inching up. Measures of credit delinquencies in credit cards and auto loans are also making new post GFC highs. Consumer confidence surveys tell us that the consumer is beyond pessimistic.

Last week the NY Fed published the results of a survey of regional manufacturers and service providers titled, “Are Businesses Absorbing the Tariffs or Passing Them On to Their Customers?,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, June 4, 2025.

Earlier this week, Axios interviewed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and they advertised the comments from Amodei with the stunning headline, “AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs.”

“We expect federal deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation. We anticipate that the federal debt burden will rise to about 134% of GDP by 2035, compared to 98% in 2024.” Moody’s Friday May 16th

It is very unlikely we see a recession without a housing recession or an acceleration in the economy without housing leading the way.