This morning the Atlanta Fed published their “Nowcast” for US economic growth in the third quarter.  Historically, it has made sense to take these nowcasts with a grain of salt early in the quarter but later in the quarter, as we are now, these forecasts become more accurate. 

Labor Demand is Weak, but so is Labor Supply

WealthVest, a leading financial services distribution firm, has announced a strategic partnership with Institutional Securities Corporation (ISC) to establish a dedicated, nationwide structured products wholesaling team. This new team will support bank investment programs, independent broker-dealers and registered investment advisors (RIAs). 

Markets appear to be discounting an economy that is weak enough to allow the Fed to aggressively cut rates, but not so weak that a recession that would impact corporate earnings might be looming.

We find the commentary hard to square with the market expectation of a cut in September. They may well cut, but it doesn’t sound like they think it’s a great idea. 

Jackson Hole is next week and Jerome Powell is between a rock and a hard place

WealthVest, a Bozeman-based financial services wholesaling firm, announced they have earned the prestigious Great Place to Work Certification^TM. With the designation, WealthVest became one of just eight Montana-based companies recognized as a global leader in workplace culture, employee experience and leadership.

Tim Pierotti dives into the differences between today's IPO speculation and retail enthusiasm and the reminiscent trends of 1999. The question looms: Are we on the brink of another bubble?

Sometimes bad is good and good is bad when it comes to markets and the economy.

Two things can be true: This is a terrible job market for recent graduates and many other segments of the white-collar job market and yet nearly 40% of employers can’t fill open roles.

The neo-liberal consensus of free trade and integrated supply chains is under heavy strain due to growing populism in the developed world (which has seen stagnant wage growth) and in response to national security concerns. COVID-19 laid bare the glaring problems of not having domestic production in items such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have been focused on decoupling from China, albeit in very different ways. President Biden used the carrot in the form of industrial investment and corporate subsidies (i.e., the CHIPS and Science Act and provisions of Build Back Better). The Trump Administration has used the stick in the form of tariffs.

The housing market, in most of the country, is getting weaker. Activity remains slow, prices are negative across the Sunbelt, and inventory of both new and existing homes are moving to the highest levels since the GFC. Employment is getting weaker. Continuing unemployment claims are making new highs on a weekly basis and even initial jobless claims are finally inching up. Measures of credit delinquencies in credit cards and auto loans are also making new post GFC highs. Consumer confidence surveys tell us that the consumer is beyond pessimistic.

Last week the NY Fed published the results of a survey of regional manufacturers and service providers titled, “Are Businesses Absorbing the Tariffs or Passing Them On to Their Customers?,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, June 4, 2025.

Earlier this week, Axios interviewed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and they advertised the comments from Amodei with the stunning headline, “AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs.”

“We expect federal deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation. We anticipate that the federal debt burden will rise to about 134% of GDP by 2035, compared to 98% in 2024.” Moody’s Friday May 16th

It is very unlikely we see a recession without a housing recession or an acceleration in the economy without housing leading the way.

Markets are intuitively rallying as it appears trade wars are ebbing and institutional investors find themselves wrong-footed. That said, tariffs have not gone away altogether, and they are and will be a regressive tax on working class Americans. They will also continue to disincentivize capital spending and hiring intentions.

Yesterday, Diamondback Energy (FANG), a $40 Billion exploration and production company in Texas, and a darling of Wall Street analysts wrote an extraordinary letter to shareholders. The CEO Travis Stice wrote the following:

CEO confidence recently hit the lowest level, by one measure, in fifteen years and yet Q1 earnings have been strong and ahead of Wall Street expectations.

Consumers, according to The Conference Board and the University of Michigan, are in a panic and yet spending at retail and among Visa customers show few signs of weakness.

Consumer confidence has taken a significant hit over the last couple of months and the impact of tariffs has not even materialized yet. Barring a policy reversal from the Trump administration, it is hard for us to envision an economic scenario that does not involve a recession when such a large cost of living shock is looming for working class Americans. - Tim Pierotti