The Age of Hubris and Delusion
What stands out to me about the Jensen Huang saga is the hubris. Mr. Huang carried on an affair with a woman who represented a company that, at the very least, he had to suspect was smuggling embargoed Nvidia chips to China and yet, he took lots of pictures with her. He was untouchable. He sensed, or as he would say, he “manifested” that the witless minions of regulators and media could never lay a hand on someone so utterly powerful. The prideful Mr. Huang isn’t alone among a new world of “futurist” billionaires. Elon Musk has made endless confident predictions that have failed to come to fruition. There still aren’t millions of cybercabs on the streets, despite a long history of annual predictions of “next year”. DOGE did not in fact successfully circumvent or usurp Congressional authority to cut “$1Trillion” of annual spending. Musk, without a hint of trepidation, recently predicted that AI will bring such widely distributed wealth and abundance that saving and investing are no longer even necessary. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei’s equally economically incoherent predictions that AI would lead to historic growth amid historic unemployment look even further disconnected from reality as time passes. Many of Amodei’s acolytes believe that AI is capable of creating AI Agents with a “soul” and have gone so far as to make that case to the Pope himself.
Is an Economic Slowdown Finally Emerging?
US economic growth has been and remains extraordinary. Both real (minus inflation) and nominal (including inflation) growth have consistently been at the high end or above Wall Street forecasts for several years now. Wall Street sees the momentum continuing. Earnings estimates for corporate America remain extremely bullish and bond markets are pricing in at least three more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to combat inflation which is expected to persist. Our view is that conditions are building for a slowdown in both growth and inflation. This is not a recession call or a prediction of impending market doom. In fact, slower demand growth is likely to also mean less inflation pressure and fewer rate hikes from the Fed. My only point here is that there are a significant number of factors that are likely to weigh on growth. Of course, there are wild cards given I have no idea what will happen to oil and oil product prices and I have no idea how sentiment will evolve toward AI. But accepting that there are critical factors that are essentially unknowable, there are a slew of factors enumerated below that are more likely to indicate a slowdown than the continued breakneck pace of demand.
The Anthropic IPO: Bizarre and Immensely Important
Check out Tim Pierotti's thoughts on the Anthropic IPO, and how large of barometer it is for the U.S. economy.
Five Narratives for the Bond Beatdown
In our view, each narrative is valid but incomplete; together, these forces contribute to higher inflation and interest rates. How much higher could rates go? At what point do these higher rates slow growth?
The Faith Based Boom
“Back in the days when young punk bankers were still tolerated to harass research analysts about their stock ratings, estimates, and targets, I was a young punk Morgan Stanley banker doing just that.”
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Axonic Insurance Annuities, Built for Banks, Broker-Dealers and RIAs, Now Available through WealthVest
WealthVest, a leading wholesaler of annuities to financial professionals, has announced a strategic distribution partnership today with Axonic Insurance (AXI), a global annuity and insurance platform.
Events and Paradigm Shifts
For the past year, we have all heard Fed Governors and macro commentators argue that the Fed should “look through” tariffs and more recently, that the Fed should look through the oil price shock. Our view is that the Fed should look through nothing.
WealthVest’s Kevin Beard Honored with 2026 WSR Pathfinder Award Recognizing Top Black Industry Leaders
WealthVest is proud to announce that Kevin Beard, Chief Strategy Officer, has been named a recipient of the 2026 Wealth Solutions Report (WSR) Pathfinder Award as one of the Top Black Industry Leaders of 2026. This marks the second time Beard has received this honor, the first being in 2022.
Greenland, Tariffs, Context, Questions
The news upsetting markets this morning is the President’s announcement that he will impose punitive tariffs on European countries standing in opposition to the US acquisition of Greenland. S&P futures are looking down by about 1.5%. The dollar is weak as are Treasuries and the crypto complex. Risk off and sell US based assets is the trend of the morning. Gold is up and silver is parabolic. The world has come to take the President’s tariff threats seriously and seem to be anticipating that the Europeans are finally willing to take aggressive measures specifically against globally dominant US technology companies.
Pierotti For Fed Chair
Today, after much prayer and deliberation, I am launching my campaign to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Unlike the other candidates running for this office, I am running as a “Run it Cool” candidate. I know it’s a long shot given the President seems dead set on a candidate from the “Run it Hot” Party, but I think the President should hear me out, because the run-it-hotters might be good for markets near-term, but they sure aren’t going to help in the midterms.
‘Tis the Season of Forecasting Folly
“We see stocks rising 10% in 2026 to our new target of 7600 for the S&P (some will go to 8000 for the headline attention). We see earnings growing by 10-12% and we assume the earnings multiple to remain constant. We see the economy growing by 2-3% and for the US consumer to remain resilient. We do expect some volatility in markets, but we would be buyers on weakness. We expect the economic and inflationary impact of tariffs to fade next year and fiscal support from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” to support business investment. We believe that as inflation settles down, the Fed will cut two to three times. Our favorite sector remains mega-cap tech driven by the transformative and productivity-generating power of AI”
The Good and the Bad of a Third Fed Mandate
There is an old saying that I remember from my early days on Wall Street that “Only Fed Chairs who defeat inflation go to Heaven”. Given Chair Powell has allowed inflation to run above the 2% target for over four years, I’m not confident about his future ethereal direction of travel. In my experience over the years, at almost every FOMC press conference, Powell has sounded more dovish than I thought he would and has proven time and again to mistakenly underestimate the persistence of inflationary pressures.
Nothing but Bad Options for the Fed
Over the weekend, Renaissance Macro’s outstanding market economist Neil Dutta made a compelling argument that there is mounting evidence that a potential inflection in unemployment may be upon us.
Populism’s Economic Kryptonit
“Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes” Chico Marx
The Fed’s Employment Conundrum
Financial conditions are about as easy as they can be. The Fed is cutting rates and more cuts are expected. Some members of the Fed and the Treasury Secretary have successfully jawboned down the long-end of the Treasury market (and thereby mortgage rates) with talk of a “third mandate”.
WealthVest Taps Industry Veteran Kevin Beard to Lead Strategic Growth Initiatives for Broker-Dealer and Bank Partners
WealthVest has hired Kevin Beard, former Atria executive, to oversee and expand high-value partnerships with broker dealers, banks, credit unions and registered investment advisors.
