As anyone who has been a reader of our work knows, we believe that there are several distinct structural forces that will lead to higher long-term inflation. We’ve written about energy underinvestment and declining productivity as contributors to the thesis. This week, we want to throw another factor onto that list and this one is more counter-intuitive than those previously discussed: declining populations. I say counter-intuitive because, like many, I had always looked at the example of Japan as evidence that declining populations would yield declining inflation.

It’s over. That’s the message from Blackrock’s 2022 Midyear Outlook. The economists and strategists at the world’s largest asset manager with a tidy $10 Trillion of AUM wrote,

Let’s start with what we already knew coming into this week. We knew that financial conditions have gone from historically easy to historically tight in an incredibly short period of time. We knew the Fed isn’t letting off the gas until clear signs emerge that inflation is under control. Don’t forget, that includes wage inflation. While commodities might be breaking down and that helps, the Fed is a long way from seeing the kind of labor market softening they are going to need to start jawboning to the market that they might be pulling up on rate hikes. As evidenced by the yield curve inversion, fear of an imminent recession has trumped fear of runaway inflation.

The most important thing I learned this week (besides never grab hold of a skillet on a 500 degree grill) is that the people arguing that Fed will lose their nerve early and Fed Funds wont get over 3% are going to be wrong. I say that even in the context of observing commodity disinflation and continued leading indicator weakness that suggest we are sliding toward recession and curve inversion. Chairman Powell, Cleveland Fed's Mester as well as the Bank of International Settlements, which issued their annual economic report this week, are all singing from the same hymnal.

The Fed will successfully destroy demand. Gasoline prices may not come down meaningfully anytime soon due to the structural supply issues we discussed last week. Job openings may well stay elevated for months to come and consumer spending will continue to benefit from the dwindling stockpile of savings from fiscal stimulus and the vestiges of QE. But in one very important sector of the economy, the Fed's efforts to cool demand are already playing out. That sector is housing (OER/Shelter) which represents roughly 40% of the data that goes into CPI. To state the obvious, interest rates matter to housing and a doubling of long-term interest rates matters a lot.

The Fed will successfully destroy demand. Gasoline prices may not come down meaningfully anytime soon due to the structural supply issues we discussed last week. Job openings may well stay elevated for months to come and consumer spending will continue to benefit from the dwindling stockpile of savings from fiscal stimulus and the vestiges of QE. But in one very important sector of the economy, the Fed's efforts to cool demand are already playing out. That sector is housing (OER/Shelter) which represents roughly 40% of the data that goes into CPI. To state the obvious, interest rates matter to housing and a doubling of long-term interest rates matters a lot.

This week, we focused on trying to better understand the potential durability of higher energy prices.

As a reminder, at WealthVest, we have a long-term view that potential GDP growth is going lower. That means, we see a real GDP growth rate that will average below 2% and an inflation backdrop that will be consistently problematic, quite unlike the grinding decline of inflation over the last four decades. For what it's worth, this is an increasingly non-controversial view among academic economists, but not one that is yet embraced more broadly on Wall Street.

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull & Bear, Tim Pierotti comes back as a guest and discusses the GDP contraction, the job market, the Fed, fiscal policy and the prospect of stagflation.

In this episode of the Weekly Bull & Bear, Louis G. Navellier , Chairman and Founder of Navellier & Associates, joined Drew to discuss the global economic recovery, earnings season, the Fed attempt at lowering inflation, I-bonds, stagflation prospects, emerging markets and the Lifetime Income for Employees Act.

In this episode, Drew and Grant discuss concerns over inflation, the risk of stagflation, the potential of a Russian default and why U.S. exchanges didn't delist Russia

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull & Bear, Drew and Grant discuss Lael Brainard's comments, the March job report, how households are adjusting to inflation, American concerns about a recession, the price of diesel, strategic oil reserves and the defense production act being invoked for EV battery materials.

In this episode Matt Peron, Director of Research at Janus Henderson Investors, joined Drew and Grant to discuss the stock market for the rest of the year, the state of the economy, emerging market equities, oil prices, precious metals, inflation and whether or not younger investors will be more conservative.

In this episode Drew and Grant discuss the Fed rate hike, the holdup in the nomination process, oil prices tumbling, suspending the gas tax as public policy, global recessionary risks, Russia nearing default and the effectiveness of sanctions.

In this episode Drew and Grant discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the response of the international community, stock performance in times of geo-political crisis and the aftermath, the global economic consequences of the war, Russia losing access to Swift, volatility-based commodity plays and REITS.

S6E5: WealthVest/Drawing Capital February 2022

Season 6, Ep. 5

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull&Bear, Sean van der Wal and Sagar Joshi of Drawing Capital come back on the podcast.

Topics including: Tech stocks, major technological trends, the metaverse, corporations creating their own cryptocurrencies, automation and what it means for the future of work, and how the U.S. is lagging behind China in the race to 5-g are all covered.

S6E3: Solid Jobs Report and Meta Sell-Off

Season 6, Ep. 3

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull & Bear; Drew and Grant discuss Ark Invest, Amazon's earnings, the jobs report, Facebook's drop, the European Central Bank's interest rate policy and some of the newly proposed SEC regulations.

With tax season here, WealthVest has recently released the 2022 1040 Tax Guide to serve as a way for financial professionals to build knowledge on using their client’s tax returns for deeper planning conversations. It will go through individual entry sections on the 1040 form that can reveal information on clients’ financial profiles. It can be used to lessen their tax burden, uncover planning opportunities, and help financial professionals know more about their clients’ investments.

WealthVest has released their updated 2022 Tax Summary as a reference of all the IRS information financial professionals and their clients need to have a successful tax year. Included for both 2021 and 2022 is – Standard Deduction amounts, Phase-out income limits, Social Security Info, Social Security COLA Adjustments, Uniform Lifetime and Life Expectancy tables, Retirement Contribution limits and income phase outs, tax credit info and marginal tax rates.

WealthVest and Wade Pfau, PH.D., CFA, RICP, release a special edition book, Redefining Retirement: A Safe and Secure Way Down the Mountain. The book features the culmination of Pfau's research on lifetime income and the role of annuities, and a guide on how financial professionals can utilize the concepts from the book with their clients.